De spagaat van Rodigo Duterte

De regering van President Rodrigo Duterte is nu ruim vier maanden oud.  De berichtgeving erover concentreert zich op zijn grote mond en de oorlog tegen drugs, die nu al bijna 5000 (per 1 november 2016 4812 om precies te zijn) mensen het leven heeft gekost, deels in operaties uitgevoerd door de politie en deels door zogenoemde EJK’s (Extra Judicial Killings). Dat zijn er al meer dan gedurende de ‘martial law’ tijd van Marcos (3240 volgens Amnesty International). Vooral mensenrecht- organisaties uiten kritiek op de manier waarop het drugsprobleem door Duterte bestreden wordt.

Maar er is meer gaande in de Filipijnen. Duterte heeft bij zijn kabinet-benoemingen zichtbaar terug  gegrepen naar de regering van President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001-2010), door voormalig advocaat generaal Frank Chavez bestempeld als de meest corrupte van alle Filipijnse regeringen.  Daarenboven steekt hij zijn vriendschappelijke relatie met de familie van voormalig dictator Ferdinand Marcos (1965-1986) niet onder stoelen of banken. Hij beloofde tijdens de verkiezingscampagne al, dat hij een begrafenis van Ferdinand Marcos sr. op de heldenbegraafplaats ‘Libingan ng mga Bayani’ toe zou staan.  De meerderheid van de Hoge Raad van de Filipijnen heeft bezwaren daartegen onlangs weggewoven, met de simpele legalistische conclusie dat het hier een bevoegdheid van de president betreft, een politieke beslissing derhalve, waartegen juridisch geen bezwaar mogelijk is.  Zelf heeft Duterte uitgesproken dat de Marcos familie, met name dochter Imee Marcos, zijn verkiezingscampagne financieel gesteund heeft, hetgeen overigens door Imee Marcos ontkend wordt. Eveneens heeft de Hoge Raad nog niet zo lang geleden het arrest  (sedert 2011) van voormalig President Gloria Macapagal Arroya opgeheven omat er onvoldoende vermoeden van schuld tegen haar corrptie zou bestaan.  De rechtspraak in de Filipijnen wordt ook wel eens bestempeld als ‘the department store of justice’, het recht is te koop voor de meest biedende. Het heeft er alle schijn van dat de voormalige Marcos vriendjes weer sterk in opmars zijn. Zo wordt de revitalisering van de nooit in gebruik genomen kerncentrale van Bataan gepropageerd door een van de Cojuangcos, wiens vader ,Eduardo ‘ Danding’ Cojuangco, samen met Marcos’ naar Hawaii uitweek in 1986. Het Amerikaanse bedrijf Westinghouse, dat de centrale bouwde, heeft Marcos naar schatting tussen de 50 en 80 miljoen dollar aan steekpenningen voor die opdracht betaald.  De zoon van de dictator is een van de 24 Filipijnse senatoren, was kandidaat vice-president bij de laatste verkiezingen en bereid zich naar alle waarschijnlijkheid voor op een gooi naar het Presidentschap in 2022.

Aan de andere kant heeft Duterte zich geafficheerd als een vredespresident. Hij is druk doende de problemen met de Moslim bevolking in het zuidelijke Mindanoa op te lossen en werkt daarbij samen met Nur Misuari,  de oprichter en leider van het MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front). Als een van de bijdragen aan een vreedzame toekomst ziet Duterte de federalisering van de Filipijnen. Voorts zijn er besprekingen gestart in Oslo met de vertegenwoordigers van de Communistische Partij van de Filipijnen (CPP) en het daarmee verbonden National Democratic Front alsmede  de gewapende tak, de National People’s Army. Duterte heeft de communistische politieke gevangenen vrijgelaten en in zijn verbale uitingen krachtig afstand genomen van het imperialistische Amerika en opnieuw toenadering gezoch tot China en Rusland.  Noodzakelijke voorwaarden om de besprekingen in Oslo een kans van slagen te geven.  Het al decennia slepende Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) evenals de armoede- en corruptiebestrijding zijn niet onbelangrijke onderdelen van de Oslo agenda.

Interessant is hoe Duterte de beide bovenstaande strategische koersbepalingen met elkaar denkt te kunnen verzoenen.  De machtige politieke dynastieën van de Filipijnen zullen hun posities niet zonder slag of stoot prijs geven. De Moslims willen absoluut een herziening van het feodale landeigendom stelsel en de communisten streven  naar de nationalisatie van een aantal cruciale industrietakken, zoals  de mijnbouw en de drinkwater- en electriciteitsvoorziening.  Voorwaar geen gemakkelijke spagaat voor Rodrigo Duterte.

Duterte's honeymoon period is almost over-an interim review

Duterte's honeymoon period will end on October 8th next. Some people, mainly supporters of the president, say that a lot has changed already. And they are right. The question is whether this is the change they anticipated, were hoping for and that benefits (the people of) the Philippines?

1. The 'war' on drugs is the main issue of the presidency until now. Statistically there is not really a justification for this 'war'. There is no reason to believe that a well performing law enforcement and judicial system complemented by a good rehabilitation program could not be able to tackle this problem within the rule of law. The conclusion is maybe that the president got his priorities wrong by choosing to kill as many users and pushers as possible. The conclusion also could be that this 'war' is no more than a diversion.

2. The vassals of the president used the honeymoon period to create solid majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, to mute most of the opposition voices and to free themselves from possible preventive suspension for their previous acts of graft and corruption. House speaker Alvarez seeks to amend section 13 of Republic Act proposed by filing House Bill 3605 which makes preventive suspension by the Sandiganbayan of members of Congress impossible. Who really believes this is the right signal?

3. De Lima was ousted from the chair of the senate's justice committee. This as a result of the relentless effort of the president to destroy her, because she had the temerity to question the Davao Death Squad and Duterte's involvement therein. The president apparently prefers to fight personal battles above fighting corruption and cleaning the government agencies and institutions on all levels. The media naturally tuck into this bout, which distracts attention from a lot of other things.

4. The president seeks domestic peace. He started negotiations with the communist party (CPP/NPA an NDFP) whose only aim is to push through their CASER (Comprehensive Agreement on Socio-Economic Reforms)  agenda, aiming at the nationalization of 19 industries, among which are oil, steel and mining. We still have to wait and see where these negotiations will go from October 6th next. On the other hand federalism seems to be accepted as the sole the solution for peace in Mindanao. Maybe a little bit too bluntly.

5. Duterte's rapprochement with the domestic CPP matches his rapprochement with Russia and China. While there could be a positive sentiment about taking a more independent stands towards the United States, there at the same time can be many questions on his strategy. He might end up having no other choice in case he continues to bash, curse and insult the USA, the UN and the EU and to chase away western investors. He also appears to be betting on Trump as the next president of the USA.

6. Since he took office Duterte's showy lovemaking to the National Police and the Armed Forces of the Philippines is obvious. Slowly but certainly follow and obey will replace serve and protect. When push comes to shove the question will be whether police and army will defend the constitution and the people or the president and his cronies? 

7. Duterte is close to the Macos family. He promised and approved the burial of the former dictator at the Libingan ng mga Bayani. A quote of Milan Kundera perfectly illustrates and explains what happens here :

“The first step in liquidating a people is to erase its memory. Destroy its books, its culture, its history. Then have somebody write new books, manufacture a new culture, invent a new history. Before long the nation will begin to forget what it is and what it was. The world around it will forget even faster…The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting.” 

We still have to see how the Supreme Court is going to react.

8. The cabinet members Duterte appointed are close friends, allies from his Davao and Arroyo time , former classmates and people he owes a favor. Not meritocracy but nepotism. Just look at his chief legal counsel, Mr. Salvador Panelo and ask yourself: Is this the best Duterte could do? Look at his Secretary of the Department of Justice, Mr. Vitaliano Aguirre II and ask yourself (or former Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, by the way where is she?) the same question. I like to believe here are some exceptions, but they still have to take their stands.

 
9. Everything that goes wrong now in the economy of course is the fault of other people or countries (especially the USA) and for sure not a consequence of the behavior of the president. There seems to be a tremendous lack of self-criticism. The strategy is: Kill them first and then apologize. There is not much carefulness in his political behavior. His first visit abroad, after attending the ASEAN summit in Laos, is to Vietnam, which -like Laos- is one of the few one party  socialist states in the world!

10. It would be appropriate to get an overview of the goals, actions and eventual results of all departments during the first 100 days of Duterte's government as to focus the attention of people and media on the really important issues like creating jobs, fighting poverty and corruption and improving equality. 

'Dutertards' versus 'Yellowtards': a non-productive discussion

More than 16 million people voted Rodrigo Duterte into the presidency on May 9th 2016. Approximately 26 million cast their vote on one of the other candidates, with Mar Roxas in second place (10 million). Duterte took office on June 30th 2016.

During the campaign and even more after the elections the Philippines split up, despite a call from almost all candidates to unite. The division became even deeper after Duterte really started his' war' on illegal drugs in which until the 3rd week of September 3,338 people were killed in both police operations and by extra judicial or vigilante-style killings .

It's 'Dutertards' versus 'Yellowtards' (Yellow is the color of the Liberal Party) now. Back and forth the supporters use nouns and adjectives to picture and call each other names. There's practically no serious content driven discussion between the representatives of both camps.

The level of discussion is approximately as follows: You 'Yellowtards' are crybabies, crying for the human rights of criminals and not for those of the victims. Do criminals care about human rights? Why should we care about theirs? You are elitist, born with a golden spoon, moralists that never had to worry about the price of rice.  You 'Dutertards' are delusional, lazy, stupid, ignorant, retarded, trolls and uneducated morons. Your president abuses his power to kill innocent people and empowers you to threaten and become killers yourself. He creates the rule of jungle and abolishes the rule of law.

I tend to believe that this level of discussion will not help the country going forward.

To assume that all 16 million people that voted for Duterte are stupid, retarded, ignorant and uneducated idiots most likely doesn't match with reality. A survey conducted by Pulse Asia between 2 and 8 July 2016 showed that 91% of the Filipinos trusted their new president, which means that far more than the 16 million who voted for him are still happy with the outcome of the election. Why?

Rodrigo Duterte shows his middle-finger to the world. He uses strong and understandable language. He promises to fight poverty, corruption, criminality and drugs. He talks peace with the communists and the Moros. He says he will fight the oligarchs who and the mining industry that robs and destroys the country only for personal gain and profit. He takes a firm stand on cleaning up the government. Duterte presents himself  as independent and unconventional. That is what people like about him. He can hardly be called a representative of the traditional political order. Change is his trademark.

There is at least some logic in the election result. According to Einstein's definition it would be a sign of insanity to vote for the traditional politicians, for the representatives of the political dynasties and expect a different outcome or change. I know, Duterte himself is a representative of a dynasty too, however on a different (local) level. Many Filipinos gave him the benefit of the doubt. He carries a heavy burden on his shoulders to live up to his promises and deliver. The 'war' on drugs and his witch hunt for Senator De Lima, the way high profile drug lords are presented in a probe of the House of Representatives or are able to leave the country until now are tolerated and even defended by millions desperately longing for change. However the first cracks in the bastion are showing. Even if criminals don't respect human rights that is not a good reason to lower yourself or the country to their level.

More than 25% of the Filipino people are still living in poverty and below the poverty line. Inequality increases every day. The workforce is abused, wages are too low to sustain and maintain a family. Corruption also is a consequence of poverty. What would you do if you have to support a family and earn 10,000 pesos a month?

Duterte's focus has to change rapidly to show results in his fight against poverty and corruption. If not he's likely to lose support much faster than he might expect. An uplift of the discussion level between 'Dutertards' and the rest might help to detect the right course for the country.

Teodoro ‘Teddyboy’ Locsin jr., the Philippine's newest diplomat

In the turmoil about the House probe into (De Lima) the drugs trade within the NBP you might not have noticed it, but almost overnight Teddy Locsin became the Philippines newest diplomat. Starting September 20^th 2016 he succeeds Lourdes Yparraguirre as the Philippine's Ambassador or Permanent Representative to the United Nations.

Teddy is almost everything except a diplomat. I think The Netherlands is one of the few countries in the world where the Department of Foreign Affairs entertains a ‘Class for future Diplomats’. Most of the time you become a diplomat because the chief of government thinks you are qualified for the job and assigns you, most of the time also these appointments are political and not meritocratic. It’s for instance a well-known fact that in the USA often big sponsors of a presidential campaign are rewarded with a diplomatic post after their candidate won the elections.

‘Teddyboy’ is a writer, a journalist, a columnist, a presidential speechwriter and spokesperson, a lawyer, almost a judge, a publisher, an editor-in-chief and he once was a member of the boards of San Miguel Corporation (SMC) and the United Coconut Planters Bank (UCPB). He's familiar with the Aquinos, Ayalas, Zobels, Cojuangcos and other Filipino oligarchs. They used him as their front man as they saw fit and where they themselves prefer to keep a low profile. He is known for his middle-finger and outspoken opinions, which are not always diplomatic in the traditional perception of that profession. But change is coming, isn’t it?  We have noticed the new diplomatic style President Duterte showed in his first almost three month in office. Colorful would be a traditional diplomatic description. And the world has to get used to it. It’s not necessarily bad to shake up the feathers from time to time.

What an entrance Locsin made into the diplomatic corps! On his first day he of course was Karen Davila’s guest in ‘Headstart’.  And he immediately had something to say about the European Union, after the European Parliament had issued a statement on the situation in the Philippines, Zimbabwe and Somalia. The European Union should mind their own business and we should not forget that this same European Union just recently, led by its most powerful member Germany, had destroyed the country of Greece. Bam! The first hit of the newbie Philippines Ambassador to the United Nations. Verily a promising and flying start! The President will already be proud of him.

Also very interesting was to learn that Locsin is a big fan of ‘Bongbong’ Marcos and is looking forward to him being a next President of the Philippines, although Marcos sr. jailed his dad. But his dad is dead and gone and with him the history of the Marcos dictatorship that destroyed democracy to save it. His first diplomatic advice to Bongbong Marcos was to bury his father at the Libingan ng mga Bayani once he’s the President of the Philippines. Locsin’s thoughts, ideas and opinions are full of these kinds of creative twists and generally show a somewhat Machiavellian interpretation of history, although Locsin is not a historian. He now is a newbie diplomat.

The week of De Lima: Deus ex Machina!

Until yesterday Secretary Aguirre II apparently had less than half of a case against his predecessor Secretary De Lima.

As off today his case has more than doubled, at least that is what he says, thanks to 'Deus ex Machina' PNP General Benjamin Magalong. His testimony on the alleged failure of 'Oplan Cronus' made the House of Representatives probe into drugs trade in the National Bilibid Prison (NBP) otiose, because the whole world already knew that there was drugs use and trade inside the NBP. In aid of legislation the House could have sufficed by watching the Discovery Channel documentary and listen to the expose of a SAF-officer on September 20th. At least the representatives try their best to show The House and Aguirre II had different goals.

'Oplan Cronus' was a failure, because it was not implemented by the Criminal Investigation and Detection Group (CIDG) and the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA). However the planned raid in 'Oplan Cronus' was - and according to General Magalong successfully - executed on December 15th, 2014 without the participation of the CIDG and the PDEA, but with the participation of selected units of the Philippine National Police, the National Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice. The General apparently is a little bit frustrated that for one or another reason his CIDG and the PDEA were left out of the operation.

How that doubles the case of Secretary Aguirre II stays mysterious until is clarified why the CIDG and the PDEA were left out. It seems Secretary Aguirre is jumping to conclusions once more. Every time he hears the name of De Lima he jumps up, but seems very much uninterested in the quest of the House in aid of legislation.

As far as the inmate witnesses are concerned, if their testimonies show anything it is that there is a fierce struggle on power going on inside the NBP, that some of the witnesses fear for their lives because they lost battles in that fight and that they are more than eager to enter the witness protection program or to get parole in exchange for their lip-service to Secretary Aguirre II. They also show that there is a very smart tactician (he said he learned it from his father) at work, a very powerful man named Jaybee Sebastian, who seems to be able to control the country from inside the NBP. It's regrettable that Aguirre II didn't succeed in getting Jaybee Sebastian to testify. The testimonies of the inmates almost all point in the direction of Sebastian and can hardly been seen as independent statements.

Foremost this probe of the House shows once more that the biggest problem of the Philippines is a very weak and corrupt law enforcement and judicial system as well as corrupt political institutions and government agencies on all levels, which makes it almost impossible to catch and quickly convict powerful perpetrators and find any truth. Be frank, for whom would you put your hands in the fire, because you are absolutely convinced that you won't burn them? This lack of trust is the biggest threat to democracy and it will not be restored by a witch hunt for Leila de Lima.

The week of De Lima. What is the truth?

As I expected, it was an interesting Tuesday. In the late afternoon the media interrupted the broadcast of the House probe into New Bilibid Prison (NBP) drugs use and trade for De Lima's emotional privilege speech. Her main points were that she refuses to sell her soul to the devil and that Senator Alan Peter Cayetano will be her bff.

I tried to listen and to read as good as possible today. As I did, a few questions came up.

After a long introduction in which we saw the documentary of Discovery Channel on the NBP and could listen to an expose of an SAF-officer, part of the group of soldiers that took over the guarding of the inmates on July 20th, 2016, the first witness was Odolfo Magleo. By the way, the fact that the SAF-troopers took over meant that there suddenly was one guard on forty inmates, while before there was one guard on four hundred inmates (40 guards per shift!). A  question would be why De Lima didn't send the military in? Maybe she didn't do enough to end the 'wild west' or the 'Little Las Vegas' as Magleo described the NBP.

Although the House declared that the probe would not be into De Lima, right from the beginning DOJ-Secretary Aguirre, who has been questioning the witnesses, made clear that his target certainly is De Lima. About the first question he had for Magleo was: "When did you meet Secretary De Lima for the first time?"

Magleo is a former police-officer who's doing time for kidnapping. Now, 12 years later, he suddenly felt a call of conscience and service. He said he met De Lima for the first time mid 2011. Nobody asked him what the circumstances of that meeting were. One might hope that the DOJ-Secretary visits the biggest prison of the world from time to time. Furthermore he stated that he once was (apparently not anymore) a confidant of  'The King' of the NBP, Jaybee Sebastian, who is not among the witnesses. Jaybee allgedly owes money to Peter Co as well as to Jackson Lee. The latter was transferred to the Davao Penalty Colony, but Co apparently was not. Magleao 'heard' that Herbert Colangco would give millions to De Lima. As further hearsay he stated that Jaybee Sebastian paid De Lima 10 million after the transfer of the Bilibid 19 to the NBI-headquarters (December 2014) and 1 million every month. According to Magleo the drug trade inside NBP proliferated during the time of De Lima. So now we are supposed to know that Colangco as well as Sebastian were paying De Lima.

Then comes Herbert Colangco himself.  He's also doing time for kidnapping and denies to be a drug lord, but admits to have received kickbacks for transferring inmates as well as running a prostitution ring. Inside the NBP he was fooled by 'The King' into surrendering his territory, after Sebastian allegedly asked him to help De Lima with her senatorial bid. Still he did some fundraising among the drug lords and was able to pay 3 million pesos monthly to De Lima. Her security aid, Jonel Sanchez, allegedly received that money, but Colangco supposed that it was for De Lima. Since Colangco says he's not a drug lord he apparently has been paying other people's money to Sanchez and supposedly to De Lima. Despite the fact that the SAF has been confiscating cellphones in the NBP, Herbert Colangco simply brought his own into the House, to show everybody that De Lima's number was programmed in his phone. Representative Gwen Garcia could quickly confirm that the number indeed was De Lima's cause it was in her cellphone too, although she never called it until today.

Both Magleo and Colangco clearly have a problem with 'The King' of the NBP, Jaybee Sebastian, and found and escape route in the witness protection program that Aguirre's DOJ offers them.

The most peculiar testimonies today came from NBI-agent  Jovenicio Ablen and his boss NBI-deputy director Rafael Ragos. A detail, but maybe not unimportant,  here is that De Lima recommended Ragos for his post much to the displeasure of NBI-Director Gatdula in 2011. Ragos was appointed by President Noynoy Aquino.So the NBI-boss has two accounts to settle. One with De Lima and one with Ragos. Everybody who is not a complete stranger in the land of government and secret services knows what could have happened and most likely has happened.

Even more interesting stuff came up when I had a closer look into the testimonies both agents gave on the double delivery of money by the NBI to De Lima's house in Paranaque. Ablen declared he drove his boss twice to De Lima's house where  Ragos delivered the money while he, Ablen, stayed in the car. Ragos says that he, after finding a bag with money on his bed (Peter Co must have placed it there) and receiving a phonecall (who called him?) to deliver the money to De Lima's house took his car and picked up Ablen at his home. Sitting on the passenger seat Ablen even checked the content of the black bag at his feet. So they contradict each other on who was driving and who deliverd the money. Ablen is  loyal to his longtime boss, whose trust he has earned over the years. Ragos, something hit him inside beginning September and as a consequence he suddenly felt he could no longer live with a lie, is forced to lie by his own agency, whose director didn't want him there in the first place and has to settle the account with De Lima who was responsible for his appointment. Ragos himself has absolutely no motive to give a testimony against De Lima, who now allegedly received money from Jabee Sebastian, Herbert Colangco and Peter Co.

As far as I am concerned, the nasty smell of this whole operation comes out of a building at Taft Avenue, but you are invited to make your own judgement.!

The week of Senator Leila de Lima

An exciting week started with the privilege speech of Senator Alan Peter Cayetano. He was once a promising politician but I am afraid that somehow somewhere his ambition to become Vice-President or at least Secretary of Foreign Affairs overtook his intelligence. He didn't really say anything we didn't know yet, because 'The Superficial Gazette of the Republic of the Philippines' keeps us posted on the subjects he addressed. Everybody is damaging the image of the Philippines except of course the President and his lapdogs.

The most exciting moment of his speech was when his colleague Senator Leila de Lima left the Senate floor because she couldn't stand it any longer. De Lima will probably experience this week as exciting too.

First of all newbie senator Pacquiao delivered his first ever blow in the Senate by winning by split decision (16-4) the chair of the committee for Justice and Human Rights, that a few minutes later was given to senator Richard Gordon (The Red Cross is always near when there is trouble). Of course there is no way Pacquiao could have come up with this bright idea, the first time ousting of a Committee chairperson in the history of the Senate, by himself. Let's say that -in this case- he was a 'coached senator'. Former Senate president Drilon did give it a try by stating there was no Senate rule to oust a Committee chairperson, but he failed. The Senate makes the rules it needs when it needs them. Oh, and by the way, you might have noticed that the opposition is almost totally silenced. No more debate, now tiresome questions for the President. Full support. They don't have a choice anyway, because the President already expressed that he doesn't want them to get in his way.

While I am writing this, Senator De Lima is most likely preparing the privilege speech she will deliver tomorrow (September 20th). Not that this speech is going to make much of a difference, but it will be exciting to listen to it I guess. The woman is fighting for her honor and life now she's a High Value Target in the 'war' against illegal drugs and corruption. A perfect example of character assassination has been showcased. She's already dead and buried before a court of justice has said one word about her 'case'.

At the same time tomorrow the House of Representatives will start the probe into De Lima's alleged ties to drugs lords. Secretary Aguirre II is eager to present the most trustworthy witnesses he could find, two famous drug lords. He says he has enough complaints about De Lima to assume probable cause and file a case against her in the only place it should be filed, the Office of the Ombudsman. Yet he didn't file that case there. First the public trial and conviction has to done. Both the Senate and the House in the Philippine enjoy very much playing court of justice in aid of legislation. Too many lawyers there I guess.

Now the media, also accused of destroying the reputation of the Philippines in the world will have to make a difficult choice. De Lima or The House?  But anyway, it will be about De Lima.

Meanwhile, the President, who started all the fuzz about De Lima, keeps surprisingly quiet at the moment. His work apparently is done. His vassals took over.

I admire Senator De Lima's fighting spirit until now and I can only hope that she's totally clean. The case against her seems not to be very strong. Attorney Abelardo de Jesus (what's in a name?)  even considered it necessary to add 'immorality' to his charges at five minutes before twelve.  That says enough.

To be Continued..........