Duterte's honeymoon period is almost over-an interim review

Duterte's honeymoon period will end on October 8th next. Some people, mainly supporters of the president, say that a lot has changed already. And they are right. The question is whether this is the change they anticipated, were hoping for and that benefits (the people of) the Philippines?

1. The 'war' on drugs is the main issue of the presidency until now. Statistically there is not really a justification for this 'war'. There is no reason to believe that a well performing law enforcement and judicial system complemented by a good rehabilitation program could not be able to tackle this problem within the rule of law. The conclusion is maybe that the president got his priorities wrong by choosing to kill as many users and pushers as possible. The conclusion also could be that this 'war' is no more than a diversion.

2. The vassals of the president used the honeymoon period to create solid majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, to mute most of the opposition voices and to free themselves from possible preventive suspension for their previous acts of graft and corruption. House speaker Alvarez seeks to amend section 13 of Republic Act proposed by filing House Bill 3605 which makes preventive suspension by the Sandiganbayan of members of Congress impossible. Who really believes this is the right signal?

3. De Lima was ousted from the chair of the senate's justice committee. This as a result of the relentless effort of the president to destroy her, because she had the temerity to question the Davao Death Squad and Duterte's involvement therein. The president apparently prefers to fight personal battles above fighting corruption and cleaning the government agencies and institutions on all levels. The media naturally tuck into this bout, which distracts attention from a lot of other things.

4. The president seeks domestic peace. He started negotiations with the communist party (CPP/NPA an NDFP) whose only aim is to push through their CASER (Comprehensive Agreement on Socio-Economic Reforms)  agenda, aiming at the nationalization of 19 industries, among which are oil, steel and mining. We still have to wait and see where these negotiations will go from October 6th next. On the other hand federalism seems to be accepted as the sole the solution for peace in Mindanao. Maybe a little bit too bluntly.

5. Duterte's rapprochement with the domestic CPP matches his rapprochement with Russia and China. While there could be a positive sentiment about taking a more independent stands towards the United States, there at the same time can be many questions on his strategy. He might end up having no other choice in case he continues to bash, curse and insult the USA, the UN and the EU and to chase away western investors. He also appears to be betting on Trump as the next president of the USA.

6. Since he took office Duterte's showy lovemaking to the National Police and the Armed Forces of the Philippines is obvious. Slowly but certainly follow and obey will replace serve and protect. When push comes to shove the question will be whether police and army will defend the constitution and the people or the president and his cronies? 

7. Duterte is close to the Macos family. He promised and approved the burial of the former dictator at the Libingan ng mga Bayani. A quote of Milan Kundera perfectly illustrates and explains what happens here :

“The first step in liquidating a people is to erase its memory. Destroy its books, its culture, its history. Then have somebody write new books, manufacture a new culture, invent a new history. Before long the nation will begin to forget what it is and what it was. The world around it will forget even faster…The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting.” 

We still have to see how the Supreme Court is going to react.

8. The cabinet members Duterte appointed are close friends, allies from his Davao and Arroyo time , former classmates and people he owes a favor. Not meritocracy but nepotism. Just look at his chief legal counsel, Mr. Salvador Panelo and ask yourself: Is this the best Duterte could do? Look at his Secretary of the Department of Justice, Mr. Vitaliano Aguirre II and ask yourself (or former Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, by the way where is she?) the same question. I like to believe here are some exceptions, but they still have to take their stands.

 
9. Everything that goes wrong now in the economy of course is the fault of other people or countries (especially the USA) and for sure not a consequence of the behavior of the president. There seems to be a tremendous lack of self-criticism. The strategy is: Kill them first and then apologize. There is not much carefulness in his political behavior. His first visit abroad, after attending the ASEAN summit in Laos, is to Vietnam, which -like Laos- is one of the few one party  socialist states in the world!

10. It would be appropriate to get an overview of the goals, actions and eventual results of all departments during the first 100 days of Duterte's government as to focus the attention of people and media on the really important issues like creating jobs, fighting poverty and corruption and improving equality. 

'Dutertards' versus 'Yellowtards': a non-productive discussion

More than 16 million people voted Rodrigo Duterte into the presidency on May 9th 2016. Approximately 26 million cast their vote on one of the other candidates, with Mar Roxas in second place (10 million). Duterte took office on June 30th 2016.

During the campaign and even more after the elections the Philippines split up, despite a call from almost all candidates to unite. The division became even deeper after Duterte really started his' war' on illegal drugs in which until the 3rd week of September 3,338 people were killed in both police operations and by extra judicial or vigilante-style killings .

It's 'Dutertards' versus 'Yellowtards' (Yellow is the color of the Liberal Party) now. Back and forth the supporters use nouns and adjectives to picture and call each other names. There's practically no serious content driven discussion between the representatives of both camps.

The level of discussion is approximately as follows: You 'Yellowtards' are crybabies, crying for the human rights of criminals and not for those of the victims. Do criminals care about human rights? Why should we care about theirs? You are elitist, born with a golden spoon, moralists that never had to worry about the price of rice.  You 'Dutertards' are delusional, lazy, stupid, ignorant, retarded, trolls and uneducated morons. Your president abuses his power to kill innocent people and empowers you to threaten and become killers yourself. He creates the rule of jungle and abolishes the rule of law.

I tend to believe that this level of discussion will not help the country going forward.

To assume that all 16 million people that voted for Duterte are stupid, retarded, ignorant and uneducated idiots most likely doesn't match with reality. A survey conducted by Pulse Asia between 2 and 8 July 2016 showed that 91% of the Filipinos trusted their new president, which means that far more than the 16 million who voted for him are still happy with the outcome of the election. Why?

Rodrigo Duterte shows his middle-finger to the world. He uses strong and understandable language. He promises to fight poverty, corruption, criminality and drugs. He talks peace with the communists and the Moros. He says he will fight the oligarchs who and the mining industry that robs and destroys the country only for personal gain and profit. He takes a firm stand on cleaning up the government. Duterte presents himself  as independent and unconventional. That is what people like about him. He can hardly be called a representative of the traditional political order. Change is his trademark.

There is at least some logic in the election result. According to Einstein's definition it would be a sign of insanity to vote for the traditional politicians, for the representatives of the political dynasties and expect a different outcome or change. I know, Duterte himself is a representative of a dynasty too, however on a different (local) level. Many Filipinos gave him the benefit of the doubt. He carries a heavy burden on his shoulders to live up to his promises and deliver. The 'war' on drugs and his witch hunt for Senator De Lima, the way high profile drug lords are presented in a probe of the House of Representatives or are able to leave the country until now are tolerated and even defended by millions desperately longing for change. However the first cracks in the bastion are showing. Even if criminals don't respect human rights that is not a good reason to lower yourself or the country to their level.

More than 25% of the Filipino people are still living in poverty and below the poverty line. Inequality increases every day. The workforce is abused, wages are too low to sustain and maintain a family. Corruption also is a consequence of poverty. What would you do if you have to support a family and earn 10,000 pesos a month?

Duterte's focus has to change rapidly to show results in his fight against poverty and corruption. If not he's likely to lose support much faster than he might expect. An uplift of the discussion level between 'Dutertards' and the rest might help to detect the right course for the country.

Teodoro ‘Teddyboy’ Locsin jr., the Philippine's newest diplomat

In the turmoil about the House probe into (De Lima) the drugs trade within the NBP you might not have noticed it, but almost overnight Teddy Locsin became the Philippines newest diplomat. Starting September 20^th 2016 he succeeds Lourdes Yparraguirre as the Philippine's Ambassador or Permanent Representative to the United Nations.

Teddy is almost everything except a diplomat. I think The Netherlands is one of the few countries in the world where the Department of Foreign Affairs entertains a ‘Class for future Diplomats’. Most of the time you become a diplomat because the chief of government thinks you are qualified for the job and assigns you, most of the time also these appointments are political and not meritocratic. It’s for instance a well-known fact that in the USA often big sponsors of a presidential campaign are rewarded with a diplomatic post after their candidate won the elections.

‘Teddyboy’ is a writer, a journalist, a columnist, a presidential speechwriter and spokesperson, a lawyer, almost a judge, a publisher, an editor-in-chief and he once was a member of the boards of San Miguel Corporation (SMC) and the United Coconut Planters Bank (UCPB). He's familiar with the Aquinos, Ayalas, Zobels, Cojuangcos and other Filipino oligarchs. They used him as their front man as they saw fit and where they themselves prefer to keep a low profile. He is known for his middle-finger and outspoken opinions, which are not always diplomatic in the traditional perception of that profession. But change is coming, isn’t it?  We have noticed the new diplomatic style President Duterte showed in his first almost three month in office. Colorful would be a traditional diplomatic description. And the world has to get used to it. It’s not necessarily bad to shake up the feathers from time to time.

What an entrance Locsin made into the diplomatic corps! On his first day he of course was Karen Davila’s guest in ‘Headstart’.  And he immediately had something to say about the European Union, after the European Parliament had issued a statement on the situation in the Philippines, Zimbabwe and Somalia. The European Union should mind their own business and we should not forget that this same European Union just recently, led by its most powerful member Germany, had destroyed the country of Greece. Bam! The first hit of the newbie Philippines Ambassador to the United Nations. Verily a promising and flying start! The President will already be proud of him.

Also very interesting was to learn that Locsin is a big fan of ‘Bongbong’ Marcos and is looking forward to him being a next President of the Philippines, although Marcos sr. jailed his dad. But his dad is dead and gone and with him the history of the Marcos dictatorship that destroyed democracy to save it. His first diplomatic advice to Bongbong Marcos was to bury his father at the Libingan ng mga Bayani once he’s the President of the Philippines. Locsin’s thoughts, ideas and opinions are full of these kinds of creative twists and generally show a somewhat Machiavellian interpretation of history, although Locsin is not a historian. He now is a newbie diplomat.

The week of De Lima: Deus ex Machina!

Until yesterday Secretary Aguirre II apparently had less than half of a case against his predecessor Secretary De Lima.

As off today his case has more than doubled, at least that is what he says, thanks to 'Deus ex Machina' PNP General Benjamin Magalong. His testimony on the alleged failure of 'Oplan Cronus' made the House of Representatives probe into drugs trade in the National Bilibid Prison (NBP) otiose, because the whole world already knew that there was drugs use and trade inside the NBP. In aid of legislation the House could have sufficed by watching the Discovery Channel documentary and listen to the expose of a SAF-officer on September 20th. At least the representatives try their best to show The House and Aguirre II had different goals.

'Oplan Cronus' was a failure, because it was not implemented by the Criminal Investigation and Detection Group (CIDG) and the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA). However the planned raid in 'Oplan Cronus' was - and according to General Magalong successfully - executed on December 15th, 2014 without the participation of the CIDG and the PDEA, but with the participation of selected units of the Philippine National Police, the National Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice. The General apparently is a little bit frustrated that for one or another reason his CIDG and the PDEA were left out of the operation.

How that doubles the case of Secretary Aguirre II stays mysterious until is clarified why the CIDG and the PDEA were left out. It seems Secretary Aguirre is jumping to conclusions once more. Every time he hears the name of De Lima he jumps up, but seems very much uninterested in the quest of the House in aid of legislation.

As far as the inmate witnesses are concerned, if their testimonies show anything it is that there is a fierce struggle on power going on inside the NBP, that some of the witnesses fear for their lives because they lost battles in that fight and that they are more than eager to enter the witness protection program or to get parole in exchange for their lip-service to Secretary Aguirre II. They also show that there is a very smart tactician (he said he learned it from his father) at work, a very powerful man named Jaybee Sebastian, who seems to be able to control the country from inside the NBP. It's regrettable that Aguirre II didn't succeed in getting Jaybee Sebastian to testify. The testimonies of the inmates almost all point in the direction of Sebastian and can hardly been seen as independent statements.

Foremost this probe of the House shows once more that the biggest problem of the Philippines is a very weak and corrupt law enforcement and judicial system as well as corrupt political institutions and government agencies on all levels, which makes it almost impossible to catch and quickly convict powerful perpetrators and find any truth. Be frank, for whom would you put your hands in the fire, because you are absolutely convinced that you won't burn them? This lack of trust is the biggest threat to democracy and it will not be restored by a witch hunt for Leila de Lima.

The week of De Lima. What is the truth?

As I expected, it was an interesting Tuesday. In the late afternoon the media interrupted the broadcast of the House probe into New Bilibid Prison (NBP) drugs use and trade for De Lima's emotional privilege speech. Her main points were that she refuses to sell her soul to the devil and that Senator Alan Peter Cayetano will be her bff.

I tried to listen and to read as good as possible today. As I did, a few questions came up.

After a long introduction in which we saw the documentary of Discovery Channel on the NBP and could listen to an expose of an SAF-officer, part of the group of soldiers that took over the guarding of the inmates on July 20th, 2016, the first witness was Odolfo Magleo. By the way, the fact that the SAF-troopers took over meant that there suddenly was one guard on forty inmates, while before there was one guard on four hundred inmates (40 guards per shift!). A  question would be why De Lima didn't send the military in? Maybe she didn't do enough to end the 'wild west' or the 'Little Las Vegas' as Magleo described the NBP.

Although the House declared that the probe would not be into De Lima, right from the beginning DOJ-Secretary Aguirre, who has been questioning the witnesses, made clear that his target certainly is De Lima. About the first question he had for Magleo was: "When did you meet Secretary De Lima for the first time?"

Magleo is a former police-officer who's doing time for kidnapping. Now, 12 years later, he suddenly felt a call of conscience and service. He said he met De Lima for the first time mid 2011. Nobody asked him what the circumstances of that meeting were. One might hope that the DOJ-Secretary visits the biggest prison of the world from time to time. Furthermore he stated that he once was (apparently not anymore) a confidant of  'The King' of the NBP, Jaybee Sebastian, who is not among the witnesses. Jaybee allgedly owes money to Peter Co as well as to Jackson Lee. The latter was transferred to the Davao Penalty Colony, but Co apparently was not. Magleao 'heard' that Herbert Colangco would give millions to De Lima. As further hearsay he stated that Jaybee Sebastian paid De Lima 10 million after the transfer of the Bilibid 19 to the NBI-headquarters (December 2014) and 1 million every month. According to Magleo the drug trade inside NBP proliferated during the time of De Lima. So now we are supposed to know that Colangco as well as Sebastian were paying De Lima.

Then comes Herbert Colangco himself.  He's also doing time for kidnapping and denies to be a drug lord, but admits to have received kickbacks for transferring inmates as well as running a prostitution ring. Inside the NBP he was fooled by 'The King' into surrendering his territory, after Sebastian allegedly asked him to help De Lima with her senatorial bid. Still he did some fundraising among the drug lords and was able to pay 3 million pesos monthly to De Lima. Her security aid, Jonel Sanchez, allegedly received that money, but Colangco supposed that it was for De Lima. Since Colangco says he's not a drug lord he apparently has been paying other people's money to Sanchez and supposedly to De Lima. Despite the fact that the SAF has been confiscating cellphones in the NBP, Herbert Colangco simply brought his own into the House, to show everybody that De Lima's number was programmed in his phone. Representative Gwen Garcia could quickly confirm that the number indeed was De Lima's cause it was in her cellphone too, although she never called it until today.

Both Magleo and Colangco clearly have a problem with 'The King' of the NBP, Jaybee Sebastian, and found and escape route in the witness protection program that Aguirre's DOJ offers them.

The most peculiar testimonies today came from NBI-agent  Jovenicio Ablen and his boss NBI-deputy director Rafael Ragos. A detail, but maybe not unimportant,  here is that De Lima recommended Ragos for his post much to the displeasure of NBI-Director Gatdula in 2011. Ragos was appointed by President Noynoy Aquino.So the NBI-boss has two accounts to settle. One with De Lima and one with Ragos. Everybody who is not a complete stranger in the land of government and secret services knows what could have happened and most likely has happened.

Even more interesting stuff came up when I had a closer look into the testimonies both agents gave on the double delivery of money by the NBI to De Lima's house in Paranaque. Ablen declared he drove his boss twice to De Lima's house where  Ragos delivered the money while he, Ablen, stayed in the car. Ragos says that he, after finding a bag with money on his bed (Peter Co must have placed it there) and receiving a phonecall (who called him?) to deliver the money to De Lima's house took his car and picked up Ablen at his home. Sitting on the passenger seat Ablen even checked the content of the black bag at his feet. So they contradict each other on who was driving and who deliverd the money. Ablen is  loyal to his longtime boss, whose trust he has earned over the years. Ragos, something hit him inside beginning September and as a consequence he suddenly felt he could no longer live with a lie, is forced to lie by his own agency, whose director didn't want him there in the first place and has to settle the account with De Lima who was responsible for his appointment. Ragos himself has absolutely no motive to give a testimony against De Lima, who now allegedly received money from Jabee Sebastian, Herbert Colangco and Peter Co.

As far as I am concerned, the nasty smell of this whole operation comes out of a building at Taft Avenue, but you are invited to make your own judgement.!

The week of Senator Leila de Lima

An exciting week started with the privilege speech of Senator Alan Peter Cayetano. He was once a promising politician but I am afraid that somehow somewhere his ambition to become Vice-President or at least Secretary of Foreign Affairs overtook his intelligence. He didn't really say anything we didn't know yet, because 'The Superficial Gazette of the Republic of the Philippines' keeps us posted on the subjects he addressed. Everybody is damaging the image of the Philippines except of course the President and his lapdogs.

The most exciting moment of his speech was when his colleague Senator Leila de Lima left the Senate floor because she couldn't stand it any longer. De Lima will probably experience this week as exciting too.

First of all newbie senator Pacquiao delivered his first ever blow in the Senate by winning by split decision (16-4) the chair of the committee for Justice and Human Rights, that a few minutes later was given to senator Richard Gordon (The Red Cross is always near when there is trouble). Of course there is no way Pacquiao could have come up with this bright idea, the first time ousting of a Committee chairperson in the history of the Senate, by himself. Let's say that -in this case- he was a 'coached senator'. Former Senate president Drilon did give it a try by stating there was no Senate rule to oust a Committee chairperson, but he failed. The Senate makes the rules it needs when it needs them. Oh, and by the way, you might have noticed that the opposition is almost totally silenced. No more debate, now tiresome questions for the President. Full support. They don't have a choice anyway, because the President already expressed that he doesn't want them to get in his way.

While I am writing this, Senator De Lima is most likely preparing the privilege speech she will deliver tomorrow (September 20th). Not that this speech is going to make much of a difference, but it will be exciting to listen to it I guess. The woman is fighting for her honor and life now she's a High Value Target in the 'war' against illegal drugs and corruption. A perfect example of character assassination has been showcased. She's already dead and buried before a court of justice has said one word about her 'case'.

At the same time tomorrow the House of Representatives will start the probe into De Lima's alleged ties to drugs lords. Secretary Aguirre II is eager to present the most trustworthy witnesses he could find, two famous drug lords. He says he has enough complaints about De Lima to assume probable cause and file a case against her in the only place it should be filed, the Office of the Ombudsman. Yet he didn't file that case there. First the public trial and conviction has to done. Both the Senate and the House in the Philippine enjoy very much playing court of justice in aid of legislation. Too many lawyers there I guess.

Now the media, also accused of destroying the reputation of the Philippines in the world will have to make a difficult choice. De Lima or The House?  But anyway, it will be about De Lima.

Meanwhile, the President, who started all the fuzz about De Lima, keeps surprisingly quiet at the moment. His work apparently is done. His vassals took over.

I admire Senator De Lima's fighting spirit until now and I can only hope that she's totally clean. The case against her seems not to be very strong. Attorney Abelardo de Jesus (what's in a name?)  even considered it necessary to add 'immorality' to his charges at five minutes before twelve.  That says enough.

To be Continued..........

Understanding needs effort, not blind docility

Trying to understand the world and the people around me is not always easy. It's a bit of a struggle every now and then. Sometimes I wonder what the world would be without people? Silly thought of course. Can you imagine a world without people? When you try you must realize that it is still you, as one of the people, who's imagining. People make the world go round and maybe ultimately we will destroy it, isn't it? Or is it money? But then again money is an invention of people. In the end, it's all about us, it's about our goals and motives, about our values and believes. About 'Why'!

For example, I thought that peace talks were part, most of the time at the end, of a war. I wonder who has noticed a war between the Government of the Philippines and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) or the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in recent years? Both movements are dying if not already dead. We are talking about a few thousand people on a population of 103 million. Anything that can be compared to a very little bit of a real war is fought by the Abu Sayyaf Group. But they are (also a small group of) terrorists and we don't negotiate with terrorists do we? (For an interesting assessment of the situation in the Philippines see: https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/160119_Green_AsiaPacificRebalance2025_Web_0.pdf . Read from page 73)

The National People's Army  too was considered to be a terrorist movement by the Aquino government and the Americans, but not even a year later they are - barely fighting - freedom fighters and political prisoners. Of course there was some historical injustice done in Mindanao that has to be repaired. But are we really repairing that injustice by releasing killers and building up a movement whose only aim is to overthrow democracy and establish a one party socialist/communist state?

"I urge the Filipino youth to continue all their efforts to unite the people for the overthrow of the semicolonial and semifeudal system through a people's war and for the completion of the national democratic revolution", said Jose Maria Sison in an interview published in Liberation International (April-June 2016). (see: www.ndfp.org/liberation international for the whole enlightening interview)

So, at least the NDFP doesn't make a secret out of what it's real and ultimate goal is.

I also tried to understand why the word 'Democratic' appears in the name NDFP and my conclusion is that it has only been used to deceive, to mislead us. Have you ever seen a one-party socialist or communist state being democratic? The NDFP is pointing to countries like China, North-Korea, Cuba, Iran, Russia and Venezuela as desirable new partners for the Philippines. When I have a closer look at those countries I don't fancy to live there (although Cuba and China are nice), do you? North-Korea is led by an idiot who threatens world peace, Venezuela is under martial law and there is no food. Certainly shining examples the Philippines should follow!

Sison and his comrades have never got free from the old Mao-istic ideology. One thing I made my own quite some years ago is the perception that every -ism is dangerous. -Isms have a tendency to become dogmatic and to try and impose their dogmas upon people who prefer to keep on thinking for themselves. Where dogmas rule their can be no democracy. Mao's Great Leap Forward and his Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution caused the death of somewhere between 40 and 70 million of his countrymen, all for the sake of fighting the imperialists and counter-revolutionists inside and outside the country. Since then China fortunately has made some progress. Since Deng Xiaoping (it doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice), who in the eyes of Sison is a counter-revolutionary hundreds of millions of Chinese have been lifted from starvation and poverty. A really remarkable achievement of capitalistic communism.

Like communism capitalism is an -ism, invented by mankind. The dogmas of capitalism rule most parts of the world nowadays. Without any doubt they contributed to a better life for many people. But I think we came of the right path somehow somewhere. We have until now not succeeded in distributing, in sharing wealth equally. In fact inequality grows day by day. And there is no reason to assume that those who have most will voluntarily change their ways. That is where Sison and his comrades still have a point. So maybe it would be wise to adjust the course before it is too late. Killing the opposite site however is not going to bring any course correction or solution any closer. We can kill each other, but we cannot kill ideas. We only kill out of fear, not out of force or strength. The killers in fact are the weak ones. Discussion, dialogue and persuasion are better means to rediscover the right path to a sustainable future for all of us. Dogmas will not be very helpful in this quest. Maybe we should just try to find a way to a capitalism for the many and not for the few as Robert Reich suggested.

My struggle to understand will continue. In fact I like and enjoy it!

The Socialist Republic of the Philippines in the making?

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Independent foreign policy?

We, the Philippines, have an independent foreign policy, that is based on our constitution. Big words again form the Duterte government. But what do those words really mean?

Every country has an independent foreign policy in the sense that countries themselves determine what their political, economic, military and cultural relationship to other countries is, should or could be.

Our world however is interconnected and interdependent. Almost everything that happens in one place has its influence on other places. Independence is no more than a theoretical proposition and part of an old, outlived paradigm in foreign policy. It's part of the (secret) 'games' our politicians out of narrow minded self-interest, influenced by the big businesses and so called national security agencies, still play. It's why they have led us from one unnecessary war to the next and lost the trust of so many people.It's why in so many countries democracy is under severe pressure.

The time of colonialism indeed lays long behind us, although some people (like President Duterte) haven't forgot it and there is nothing wrong with not forgetting even when the memory sometimes seems to be selective.

Although there might be no hard, open pressure, there surely is soft and hard unseen pressure on countries foreign policies. We are not likely to hear harsh words of Duterte against Russia, Saudi-Arabia, the United Arabic Emirates, Qatar or Malaysia. Why not? Because for more than 90% the Philippines is depending on their oil. Even the forced repatriation of 11,000 OFW's, who lost their jobs in Saudi-Arabia didn't provoke any hard words from the President. No, he simply allocated 249 million pesos to bring them home, because the government of The Philippines doesn't want them to become a burden to the host nation, one of the richest countries in the world.

President Duterte is not only fighting a' war' against illegal drugs, but also his own mini-'war' against the United States of America, a country that he apparently doesn't like very much. So what we are witnessing is a change in the foreign policy course of the Philippines. Duterte is looking for new close friends in Asia and especially wants a closer relationship to China and Russia. That is what independent foreign policy really means. That's why the South-Chinese Sea issue will be settled between The Philippines and China, much to the discomfort of the United States, whose foreign policy is mainly aimed at encircling Russia and China with the help of numerous allies.

The new paradigm for foreign policy however should acknowledge that we all are interdependent on this earth and that we have a shared responsibility to preserve and share this planet we live on for our children and grandchildren, a responsibility to keep it livable, safe, secure and peaceful for all. We cannot on the one hand condemn a nation or nations for not interfering when a dictator slays his own people and at the same time defend the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of a country. Everything that happens at any place on this earth is of our business. Narrow minded self-interest is not a good compass to sail by.

The ‘war’ on (illegal) drugs in the Philippines

Between political rhetoric and evidence based policy

On May 9^th Rodrigo Duterte was elected to be the 16^th President of the Philippines. He took office on the 30^th of June 2016. Together with his running mate Alan Peter Cayetano, Duterte betted successfully on a law and order agenda. In an article published in the New York Times on September 11^th 2016 Amanda Taub illustrates the probable background for Dutere’s victory and policy.

“It tends to begin, the research suggests, with a weak state and a population desperate for security. Short-term incentives push everyone to bad decisions that culminate in violence that, once it has reached a level as bloody as that in the Philippines, can be nearly impossible to stop.” (Fat & underline by JvD)

“When people begin to see the justice system as thoroughly corrupt and broken, they feel unprotected from crime. That sense of threat makes them willing to support vigilante violence, which feels like the best option for restoring order and protecting their personal safety.”

“Surprisingly, that includes increased support for the use of harsh extralegal tactics by the police themselves. “This seems counterintuitive,” Ms. Santamaria (a professor at the Mexico Autonomous Institute of Technology in Mexico City) said. “If you don’t trust the police to prosecute criminals, why would you trust them with bending the law?”

But to people desperate for security, she said, the unmediated punishment of police violence seems far more effective than waiting for a corrupt system to take action.

And so, over time, frustration with state institutions, coupled with fear of crime and insecurity, leads to demand for authoritarian violence — even if that means empowering the same corrupt, flawed institutions that failed to provide security in the first place.”

On August 23^rd PNP-chief Ronald dela Rosa stated that since July 1^st (54 days of Duterte Government) 1,916 people were killed, 756 in police operations and 1160 in extra judicial killings. On September 1^st 2016 the death toll had risen to 2,446, an average of almost 40 a day.

“Leaders like Mr. Duterte have a political incentive to exploit this sentiment, marketing their willingness to go around the system to prove that they are willing to do whatever it takes to solve the country’s problems.

“When you have a weak government that faces a security crisis and also a crisis of trust of the people, the issue of promising more punishment is a shortcut to gain citizens’ confidence, to gain support,” Ms. Santamaria said.

Why not instead promise to fix the real underlying problems?

First, because institutional reform isn’t as politically appealing as identifying villains — in the case of the Philippines, criminal gangs — and promising to take them down. Second, because the very state weakness that created the problems often means that leaders are incapable of fixing the underlying issues.”

Declaring a ‘war’ most of the time involves quite some war-rhetoric. “I will kill you. I will kill them all. Come to this country and I will kill you” and so on. This tough language is Duterte’s trade mark and until now he gets away with it. He is also known for his continuous attempts to go around the judicial system of which he himself has been a part and thus has first-hand information of its dysfunction.

On September 2^nd there was a ‘bomb’-attack on the massage area of the night market at Roxas Avenue in (out of all places) Davao City (Duterte’s daughter Sara is the incumbent Mayor of Davao) in which 14 people had been killed. The day after President Duterte declared the state of ‘Lawlessness’ or ‘Lawless Violence’. The declaration was based on Article VII Section 18 of the Constitution which states that "The President shall be the Commander-in-Chief of all armed forces of the Philippines and whenever it becomes necessary, he may call out such armed forces to prevent or suppress lawless violence, invasion or rebellion." Still quite some people wonder what this ‘State of Lawless Violence’ really means for their daily lives. The most probable answer is: Nothing at all.

(The lack of reliable) Facts & Figures on illegal drugs

To begin with, it is not quite clear when something becomes or is a problem in or for a given society, let alone a problem that deserves a ‘war’ to solve it and by the way, wars thus far haven’t solved many problems without causing new ones. Furthermore it is not always easy to find reliable statistics on different subjects.

In the Philippines for instance every year there are more than 10,000 deadly victims in traffic. Is that a problem? Does it lead to a ‘war’ against car-owners?  If anything, the government will probably choose to improve infrastructure, law-enforcement and drivers education.

Looking at the number of addicts to illegal drugs in the Philippines the numbers that are available vary from 1,3 to 3,7 million. Figures from the Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) show that back in 2004 that number seems to have been 6,7 million and has since then decreased with about 50 to 80%, depending on what you believe is the actual figure. In fact, the truth is, we don’t even know exactly what we are talking about, but we know it’s a problem. The first step in defining government policy projects should be the gathering of independently gained and verifiable data.  In the USA 10% of the population above 12 years of age seems to be addicted. Yet there is no ‘war’ on drugs there. For the sake of Duterte’s war let’s assume that every addict is one too much and that there is a zero-tolerance policy towards the trade in and the use of illegal drugs.  Let’s furthermore assume that Duterte’s figure of 3,7 million addicts is accurate. If we look at the profile of users we see predominantly male users, between 21 and 29 years old, more than 50% unemployed and with an average monthly income of less than 11,000 pesos.

What’s the target?

Until today there is, as far as I know, no concrete, SMART goalsetting for the ‘war’ on drugs. What does the Duterte government want to achieve? In case of a zero-tolerance policy it would be logical to get rid of 3,7 million addicts and the whole supply system. Let’s do the math. 600,000 addicts have surrendered until now and promised that they will not use drugs anymore. Of course there is no guarantee that they won’t, but that’s another problem and for the time being they are safe. That leaves 3,1 million addicts to deal with. In average 5,000 people per year enter a rehabilitation program. In six years that are 30,000 people. Still 3 million and 70 thousand to go. If the killing rate of in average 40 a day continues this means that in six years 87,600 people will die, which leaves at the end of Duterte’s reign a little bit less than 3 million people to deal with. But the president promised to solve the ’problem’ in three to six months! So the big question is: What is he going to do? What is the plan? What is the program? Does the government presume that those 3 million people will get so scared that they stop using spontaneously and/or surrender too?  And if we kill the demand there will be no more supply. That’s market economy, isn’t it?

What’s the action plan?

I will kill them all and feed them to the fishes in Manila Bay? One hell of a plan! And still there are people who are very impressed. But the real question is: Why is who (together with whom) going to do what, how, where, when and with which resources? A comprehensive action plan might include the supply side, the demand side as well as the law enforcement and judicial side. How is the government going to attack the big suppliers/syndicates (together with China, Indonesia and others)?  Will there be a PNP focus on the den’s where shabu is produced in the Philippines? China already offered some help with rehabilitation centers. How about programs in schools (education), poverty reduction programs (which are likely to solve 50% of the problem) and job creation (the ‘war’ might frighten some foreign investors and thus prove to be contra-productive). What about cleaning up the government-agencies, the PNP/AFP and the judiciary? What about restoring the trust of the people in these institutions (including the Senate and The House) because they are corruption free and functioning effective and efficient? Of course this approach requires a lot more effort than pulling a gun and kill and it isn’t a popular agenda from the political point of view. But let’s be frank, where the government gives up on laws, the freedom of the people no longer exists. The law of jungle rules and in the end society will collapse. The choice is between the rule of law and the rule of force! The design, implementation and monitoring of a comprehensive action plan is far more desirable than the current wild and uncontrolled ‘war’, with an uncertain outcome.