Understanding the Filipino political landscape

This May 9^th elections on all levels took take place in the Philippines. 54,36 million people casted their votes of which 24,73 are between 17 and 34 years of age. There were 5 candidates for the Presidency and 6 for the Vice-Presidency. Furthermore Senators, members of Congress, Governors, Vice-Governors, Mayors, Vice-Mayors and City Councilors will be elected.

The political landscape in the country is anything but clear and transparent. Political dynasties and personalities are by far more important than political parties, ideologies  or programs.

The candidate Presidents were Mar Roxas, Jejomar Binay, Rodrigo Duterte, Grace Poe and Miriam Defensor Santiago. Running for the Vice-Presidency are Leni Robredo, Gregory “Gringo” Honassan, Alan Cayetano, Francis “Chiz”  Escudero, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos jr. and Antonio Trillanes IV.

Jungles of posters and placards could be seen everywhere but nobody seemed to take note of them. It’s nearly impossible to identify your candidate in that jungle anyway. I would say there are too many elections on one day.  44,000 candidates run for a bit more than 18,000 positions.

Remarkable is that not only the President, but also the Vice-President is elected directly. Candidates operate in tandems. However there is a fair possibility that the President elect will get a Vice-President who wasn’t his/her running mate. This most likely is not the most effective of imaginable systems, because it includes the possibility of incorporating the opposition in the executive branch.

Yes, there are political parties. The tandem Roxas-Robredo (their color is yellow) belongs to the Liberal Party (LP), as does incumbent President Aquino. Binay-Honassan (their color is blue) belongs to the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA). Dutere-Cayetano are linked to the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) and their color is Red. Poe-Escudero (their color is white) belongs to the Partido Galing at Puso (PGP). Santiago-Marcos belongs to the People’s Reform Party (PRP) and Trillanes IV is an independent candidate for the Vice-Presidency.

However, political history of the Philippines shows that the ties between candidates and parties are not very strong. Institutionalization of political parties is still a path the Philippines have to take. As of now only about 1/5 of the seats in the House of Representatives (297 seats) are directly linked to political parties, whereas no party can have more than 3 seats. Furthermore the power of the higher house (the Senate, 24) seems to be far bigger than that of the lower house (the House of Representatives).

A shift from the Presidential model to a parliamentary model has been long discussed in the country, but never led to a result. Moreover a discussion about federalism has complicated this discussion.

Words like Liberal, Nationalist, Reform and Democratic don’t mean much related to political parties in the Philippines. Most of the time they are just flags that don’t cover the cargo. As said before the captain here is more important than the cargo.

The country has been ruled mainly by some 40 political dynasties. Most of them became rich through graft and corruption. The most well-known example is former dictator Ferdinand Marcos. His wife, the famous Imelda, is still a member of the House of Representatives and their son Ferdinand Jr. is a Senator, now running for Vice-President. Ousted president Estrada is now the mayor of Manila. Forgiveness seems to be a special virtue of Filipinos.

But at the same time a lot of voters are angry. They want to put an end to those dynasties and to corruption. But that is not easy. Extractive elites protect their positions, possessions and institutions. People want change, but the question is at what cost?

The results of the May 9 elections are that Rodrigo Duterte is going to be the next President. The people have chosen for a potential dictator, who said he will silence Congress if it blocks his plans and almost elected the heir of the Marcos Dynasty whose mother would have been glad that the money stolen from the country finally was safe now and that the former dictator most likely would have gotten an official state-funeral.  Some older people must have been crying, most probably silently. 

The collective memory of people is short. Abby Binay, whose family allegedly took millions if not billions in kickbacks and appear to be above the law, is going to be the next mayor of Makati and Duterte’s daughter will be the uncontested mayor of Davao. It stays all in the family. For me, as a foreigner, these are hard to understand choices. But I’m sure there will be a lot of scientists who are going to explain it to me. I think Filipinos vote with their heart, guts and emotion rather than with their brain. I don’t know for sure what is better, but I know what holds more risk.  It has been a vicious and divisive campaign that undoubtedly has caused wounds. Whether these wounds can be healed has to be shown. Senator Trillanes earlier announced that he would impeach Duterte and vice versa Duterte stated he would go after Trillanes. However Trillanes right after the elections stated he will not be in the way of the new government. Incumbent President Aquino said he would start organizing a new people revolution against the government of Duterte.

All in all these elections went fairly well, apart from some violent incidents and malfunctioning vote counting machines of SmartMatic. The results came in fast and Grace Poe conceded to Duterte already on the evening of May 9^th, which demonstrated trust in the handling by the Comelec of the elections. On May 10^th  Roxas, Cayetano, Escudero, Honassan, andTrillanes conceded showing the same trust.

A lot of emotions play around. My wife was crying viewing Roxas’ press-conference on May 10^th. People were accusing Leni Robredo of cheating when she was likely to win the Vice-Presidency. Duterte already announced a 1AM-curfew and a nationwide alcohol ban. Most likely within short notice smoking will only be allowed within your own walls.

The Dutch TV-station NOS labeled Duterte as a right wing populist. Apparently they compare him to their own Mr. Wilders and to Donald Trump. But in the Philippines it’s more fun. It’s different. It’s almost impossible to label politicians here.

Time will show what will really change as a consequence of these elections. Some exciting political months lay ahead of us.